Spain are rightly a best-priced 14/5 to win the final on Sunday 1st July in Kiev. They are the World and European champions, fantastic to watch with some of the world's finest players but they face a tough opening match against the Italians who beat La Roja when they played last August. Spain have also lost recently to England (1-0) and Portugal (4-0), the injured Villa and Puyol will be sorely missed, and watching Chelsea defeat Barcelona in the Champions League with an all hands to the pump, backs to the wall, hit them on the break strategy will give confidence to their opponents. Granted Spain and Barca are two different teams but they play the same passing game, dominating possession. History is against them as no country has successfully defended the trophy, nor won three international tournaments in a row. Fatigue must play a part as three quarters of the squad play for Barca, Real Madrid, Athletic Bilbao, Valencia and Atletico Madrid who all made it through to the Champions League and Europa League semi-finals. For these reasons I won't be tipping Spain to win the tournament, seeing them possibly being dumped out by the injury-ridden underdogs England or the talented French.
Talking of France, they are now undefeated in 20 matches, winning 14 and defeating England, Brazil and Germany in the process. Top form indeed but have they got the temperament and wouldn't it be poetic justice if they were to face Eire in the knock out stages and possibly stare karma in the face for the infamous Henry handball that dumped the Irish out of the last World Cup finals play off?
The expectation for England to do well has been dampened just a little by injuries but they may just surprise us if Roy Hodgson has enough time to organise the team into one that is hard to beat though not scintillating to watch. Think Greece in 2004.
My tip is for the winner to come from the group of death containing Germany, Holland, Portugal and Denmark with the final being contested by the Germans and the Dutch. The Golden Boot winner may therefore be Van Persie or Gomez. Or for an outside bet, Fernando Torres. The kick off is this Friday at 5 pm on a sofa near you.